The United States is concerned about China's expanding ability to
disrupt the most sensitive U.S. military and intelligence satellites, as
Beijing pursues its expanded ambitions in space, according to multiple
sources in the U.S. government and outside space experts.
A classified U.S. intelligence assessment completed late last year
analyzed China's increasing activities in space and mapped out the
growing vulnerability of U.S. satellites that provide secure military
communications, warn about enemy missile launches and provide precise
targeting coordinates, said the sources, who were not authorized to
speak publicly.
"It was a very credible and sobering assessment that is now provoking a
lot of activities in different quarters," said one former government
official who is familiar with U.S. national security satellite programs.
The intelligence report raised red flags about Beijing's ability to
disrupt satellites in higher orbits, which could put the most sensitive
U.S. spacecraft at risk, according to the sources. China has already
conducted several anti-satellite tests at lower orbital levels in recent
years.
Given the heightened concerns, Washington is keeping a watchful eye on
Chinese activities that could be used to disrupt U.S. satellites. It is
also urging Beijing to avoid a repeat of its January 2007 test that
created an enormous amount of "space junk," said one senior defense
official.
Details of the latest Chinese moves that have raised U.S. concerns remain classified.
U.S. officials charge that China's anti-satellite activities are part of
a major military modernization that has seen Beijing test two new
stealth fighters; step up cyber attacks on foreign computer networks;
and launch more commercial and military satellites in 2012 than the
United States.
China still lags behind the United States in most military fields.
"What we're seeing is a heightened sense in the United States that China
is a potential threat and that it has the technology to be a threat if
it wishes to," said Jonathan McDowell, with the Harvard-Smithsonian
Center for Astrophysics.
"As China becomes a space superpower, and given that it does have a
significant military component to its space program, it is inevitable
that the U.S. will be concerned about threats to its most valued
satellite systems, whether or not China actually intends to deploy such
aggressive systems," he said.
Six years ago, on January 11, 2007, China destroyed one of its own
defunct weather satellites in low-earth orbit, which created over 10,000
pieces of debris that pose a threat to other spacecraft. A
less-destructive test followed on January 11, 2010.
Space experts and U.S. officials say they expect China to continue
testing anti-satellite technologies, although they doubt it would repeat
the 2007 test, given the massive international outcry it triggered.
Gregory Kulacki, a respected researcher with the Union of Concerned
Scientists, reported earlier this month on the group's website that
there was "a strong possibility" of a new anti-satellite test by China
within the next few weeks.
He said Chinese sources had told him in November that an announcement
about an upcoming anti-satellite test had been circulated within the
Chinese government, and a high-ranking U.S. defense official confirmed
in December that Washington was "very concerned" about an imminent
Chinese anti-satellite test.
The Chinese Defense Ministry did not respond to emailed queries by Reuters' Beijing office on the question.
The Pentagon said it was aware of reports predicting another test, but
declined comment on what it called "intelligence matters."
"We monitor carefully China's military developments and urge China to
exhibit greater transparency regarding its capabilities and intentions,"
said Lieutenant Colonel Monica Matoush.
Sources within the U.S. government and outside experts said there was no
immediate evidence pointing to the preparations for the type of
satellite or rocket launches used by China for past anti-satellite tests
at lower orbits.
But they said Beijing could test its anti-satellite weapons in other
ways that would be harder to detect, such as by jamming a satellite's
signals from the ground or issuing a powerful electromagnetic pulse from
one satellite to disable another.
China could also maneuver two satellites very close together at higher
orbits, replicating actions it has already taken in lower orbits in
August 2010 and November 2010. Such activities could be used to perform
maintenance or test docking capabilities for human spaceflight, but
could clearly be used for more destructive purposes as well, they said.