Democracy faces crucial 24 hours in Pakistan

No-one ever thought Asif Ali Zardari, the wheeler-dealer widower of Benazir Bhutto, would last this long.  Now he faces the most crucial 24 hours of his time as Pakistan's president. His prime minister faces arrest and his government is under pressure from a populist preacher, little-known until three weeks ago, who has brought 20,000 protesters almost in sight of parliament.

Rumours of a coup are circulating around Islamabad drawing rooms once again.

His prize is almost in reach. Survive until March 17 and his government will have completed a full term. If elections follow on time it will mark the first ever democratic transition from one elected government to another.

No government has ever managed it in 65 years of Pakistan - overcome every time by internal squabbling or military coup.

The generals remain the deciding factor this time around. So far the military has stood back as first Tahir-ul-

Qadri led his supporters into Islamabad and then the Supreme Court ordered the arrest of the prime minister.

 If 111 brigade, which has played a role in securing key buildings in the capital in previous coups, stays in its Rawalpindi barracks then Mr Zardari's fragile coalition should hold together.
The country is already awash with evidence-free conspiracy theories that place the military at the centre of a plot to oust the government.
In reality, Pakistan's key players need no encouragement to rock the boat, and Tuesday's shock announcement by the chief justice as protesters rallied in Islamabad, smacks of opportunism rather than conspiracy.

The gathering "perfect storm" of angry mobs and court interference is no less dangerous for the absence of a plot, however.
The stakes are high in a country armed with nuclear weapons, riddled with Taliban extremists and where polio is making a comeback.
The international community has poured millions of dollars into securing a democratic Pakistan.
We will find out soon whether it has all been in vain.