Italian politics Allies again

Silvio Berlusconi resuscitates his party’s alliance with the Northern LeagueTHE Northern League has long been decisive in Silvio Berlusconi’s political career. When in 1994 the party withdrew its support from his first government, he lost power. It was not until after the League’s founder, Umberto Bossi, teamed up with Mr Berlusconi again in 2000 that he was able to regain it.

So the media proprietor-turned-conservative politician was understandably jubilant when he revealed on January 7th that he had wooed the League’s leaders back into an alliance they deserted after the fall of his latest government in November 2011. Recent opinion polls have given the League, which wants greater autonomy for the north and tighter immigration controls, less than 6% of the national vote. Yet it remains crucial to the prospects of the Italian right in the general election scheduled for February 24th and 25th.The electoral rules, framed eight years ago by a minister from the League, tip the scales in the race for the Senate towards parties with a geographically concentrated following. The centre-left Democratic Party (PD) is currently well ahead in the polls. But a partnership between the League and Mr Berlusconi’s People of Freedom (PdL) movement has a fair chance of winning the populous Lombardy and Veneto regions, thereby robbing the PD of a majority in the upper chamber. Since Italian governments need to command both houses to pass laws, that would mean a hung parliament and political uncertainty.

The League’s de facto leader, Roberto Maroni, will get in return the PdL’s equally crucial backing for his campaign to be elected governor of Lombardy in a vote being held at the same time as the general election. Yet by allying himself to the tarnished Mr Berlusconi, he has damaged his credibility. Mr Maroni took up the reins of his party after Mr Bossi quit following a scandal over the use of party funds by his relatives and friends. The new leader was meant to be representative of a cleaner League, not the pal of a man appealing against a conviction for tax fraud and also on trial for abuse of office and for paying for sex with a 17-year-old.

Mr Maroni demanded, and apparently secured, from Mr Berlusconi an undertaking that he would not be prime minister if the right won. But who would be is still unclear. Mr Berlusconi named his party secretary, Angelino Alfano. Mr Maroni proposed a former finance minister, Giulio Tremonti. The uncertainty suggested neither man expected the decision to arise.

Yet six weeks before polling day, the right’s opponents have growing problems. Pier Luigi Bersani, the leader of the PD, faces a new challenge from the left in the shape of an alliance headed by Antonio Ingroia, a former anti-mafia prosecutor.

In the centre, the outgoing prime minister, Mario Monti, is on the defensive over his imposition of a new (and much-hated) property tax. Mr Monti no doubt expected to have to defend it against Mr Berlusconi, who has promised to scrap it if elected. But on January 8th the prime minister, a former European Commissioner, was dealt an unexpected blow when the tax was criticised by Brussels. A report from the commission said it was insufficiently progressive and would increase poverty. Just what Mr Berlusconi wanted to hear.